Bye Bye Big 12

Texas and Oklahoma signed the death warrant for the conference when it was reported they not only wouldn't re-sign with the Big 12, but asked for admission into the SEC after 2025. Of course the powerhouse of the college football world would be foolish not to add two more powerhouses to already the best football conference. It's an easy decision for SEC, and with the NIL agreement, money and recruits will run through the new SEC even more than it already did with Texas and Oklahoma coming East.

It definitely comes as a shock because the Big 12 was built around Texas and Oklahoma, which is what forced teams to bail in the first major realignment, but now they'll be much lower on the totem pole. Oklahoma has regularly been able to punch their ticket to the College Football Playoffs while Texas printed money with their Longhorn Network. The potential TV could be massive in the future (SEC's agreement is through 2032 and shared networks own rights to OU and Texas), however, this may be building on the NIL.

The NCAA has been asleep at the wheel through the first realignment, TV deals and COVID management and SEC Commissioner Greg Sankey hasn't been quiet about it. Unionization is on the horizon and this move could be the precursor to the SEC breaking away. Besides Ohio State and Clemson, the championship regularly runs through the SEC and now adds one of the richest colleges in the nation, Texas, with a regular participant in Oklahoma. Sorry to Texas A&M, no longer the only Texas school in the SEC, and Missouri who went to the SEC to escape the dictatorship of Texas and Oklahoma.

Iowa State AD Jamie Pollard said “The Big12 exists because we have Texas and Oklahoma in the room. If we take Texas and Oklahoma out of the room, we're the Mountain West Conference.” during the first realignment. The death of the Big12 started there as teams bolted because of the two powerhouses, yet the Big12 just added TCU and West Virginia to get to ten and keep their conference championship as others were scared away. Pollard's statement makes it clear, they were built on Texas and Oklahoma and it all topples over without them. The big boys wanted it kept that way and because of that the conference will cease to exist.

Now, the Big12 could scramble to add teams to stay afloat but it seems unlikely the remnants of the Big12 will wait to see what happens. There are already rumors of Kansas reaching out to the Big10, the Big10 using back channels to reach out to Oklahoma State with the Okies also tied to a potential PAC12 move. TCU and others have had rumors about jumping to the west coast also. I'm confident teams will jump ship and the Big12 will die.

The Big10 was first in the TV networks and has made their schools a ton of money. Their deal runs out after 2022 and there's potential they sign a short deal to expire in 2025 to re-up to big bucks with their own super conference. Teams already make 50 million a year and it is reported they promised Rutgers 67 million by 2027 as is. With the writing on the wall it seems unlikely the Big10 sits still while the SEC runs away with the football money.

Iowa State is an early rumor for the Big10 with their natural rivalry with Iowa, and they've really improved on the football field the last few seasons. However, teams have shown a reluctance to add teams from the same state as one of their staples. Kansas is a powerhouse in basketball, the Big10 regularly trades the best basketball conference title with the ACC, but is terrible in football and not an AAU university. It sounds ridiculous with the money that is earned on the football field, but it has been important for Big10 expansion and why Okie State, a very good athletic program, could also be on the outs.

These leads to a really interesting rumor from CBS, the Big10 poaching from the PAC12. In yet another PAC12 blunder there have yet to be rumors of them reaching out to teams to add to their pathetic showing for College Football Playoffs. CBS speculates the Big10 could skip over the Big12 entirely and try and lure a PAC12 pod into the conference with TV money and better opportunities for the football playoffs. CBS speculates the Big10 could target USC with Washington, Colorado and Arizona to put in a pod with Nebraska and Iowa as the basis of western division. This would give the Big10 huge media markets, stick with their AAU accreditation goals and some buzz in the age of super conferences.

Let me take a moment to say as a fan I would love the Big10 to pay just as much attention to basketball and put a Kansas, Baylor, UCLA or Arizona in but football runs everything. However, the Big10 is clearly second in the football pecking order in overall and has respect of the College Football Playoff committee. It's mostly because of Ohio State, but unlike the ACC who just has Clemson (Notre Dame gets blitzed whenever they're in) the Big10 has put other teams in. They have to try and keep pace with the SEC and besides Notre Dame, unlikely to give up their independent/ACC agreement, USC is the big fish to go get. It's worth nothing former Big10 AD Jim Delaney went after UNC, GATech and Virginia in the first round of expansion before taking Maryland and Rutgers.

CBS' speculation of the Big10 poaching from the PAC12 is exactly where the age of expansion has left the college football landscape. It's a power five world, but the pecking order is clearly established. Former PAC12 commissioner Larry Scott tried to poach half the Big12 the first go-around but the deal fell apart when he told Texas they couldn't keep the Longhorn Network. What a blunder that was. Now, despite being a power five conference they aren't a whole lot safer than the Big12. I don't expect them to fold, but rookie AD George Kliavkoff needs to go on the offensive.

Could Okie State, Baylor, Texas Tech or Kansas be enough to keep stability in the PAC12? They'd be great basketball additions but expansion is all about football. Okie State definitely brings something, but is it enough with the SEC loading up and the Big10 offering PAC12 members more money and a better path to playoffs? As someone living in Mountain West territory would it be nuts to go after Boise State? They have their own big fish syndrome issues and it isn't going to move the needle by itself, but if you're trying to put together a better football conference, going with Boise, Okie State, Texas Tech and Kansas would add to football, basketball and new markets.

The real winner of this new expansion may actually be the AAC. Cincinnati and UCF have established themselves on the gridiron as solid programs, but they need more to establish themselves as a legitimate threat to the College Football Playoffs. They have good markets but not enough competition. There were rumors out of West Virginia about complaints over travel in the Big12. They seem good as gone. While the AAC will run into the same issues as the PAC12 when it comes to improving their football product, the death of the Big12 leaves them room to step forward into that spot.

USA Today has Iowa State going to the Big10, TCU going to the PAC12, West Virginia going to the ACC with the rest being absorbed to the AAC. Under that expansion scenario the AAC gains a fair amount of ground on the conferences in front of them, not to mention raises its basketball profile. Is it enough to take over the vacant power five spot, maybe not, but does add a regular top 25 team in Okie State and I'm not convinced Iowa State goes to the Big10 which would give the AAC another program on the rise.

Rumors now have the ACC tied to very little and I don't think that will stay true. With the SEC solidifying their position as the number one football conference, the Big10 unlikely to stand pat, the ACC is in no danger of getting weaker but needs to try and strengthen their position. Could the AAC be in danger of being poached themselves? Super conferences are on the way and the power 5 can't stand pat with the SEC firing a big shot.

Say good-bye to the Big12 because I don't there's any saving them with good homes available and each university needing to protect themselves. Why would a team join the Big12 without Texas and Oklahoma when the Big10, PAC12, AAC and likely ACC ready to make homes for them? It'll be interesting to see if some of the mid majors try and bolster themselves with a potential power five split off from the NCAA coming.