Lower Expectations Are Purdue's Time to Shine

After being a preseason top 10 team last year and hitting number one for the first time in program history, but failing to follow the bracket to the Final 4 left the season as a disappointment. Combined with losing an NBA lottery pick, an experienced guard and three seniors and striking out on the transfer market reasonably lowered expectations for this Boiler basketball team this year. However, major Purdue sports thrive under the label of lowered expectations and coach Painter is showing that already.

Painter's squad has started 3-0, coming off a comeback win at home against their first real competition in Marquette, and we've seen that this team being unranked in the preseason was incorrect. While Purdue is young and has just taken care of business against the buy game teams, in that first test against Marquette the youth stepped up. Freshman wing Fletcher Loyer had 9 points but struggled in the second half against the Golden Eagles. Right on cue fellow freshman point guard Braden Smith turned on the offense, going on a 6-0 run of his own to get Purdue the lead back. He finished with 20 points and showed an offensive game that hadn't be displayed yet, scoring a combined 12 points in the first two games.

Needing to replace all their guard production, Painter has tapped into two immediate contributors that are true freshmen. Loyer is averaging 10.3 points per game while stepping right into that shooter role, hitting 7 of 21 three-pointers. Smith is struggling in the turnover department but has relaxed anxiety over who would play point guard in West Lafayette. It's appropriate for him to be wearing number 3 because he is going to be a Chris Kramer type of player with more offense and ball handling. Painter also found a useful mercenary, after looking like he struck out on the transfer market, in David Jenkins Jr. He chipped in 10 points off the bench and showed a driving element to get to his spot and hit some big jumpers when the team needed some offense.

Everything Purdue is going to start with their potential Big Ten Player of the Year Zach Edey. Edey is averaging 20.7 points and 13.7 rebounds per game while playing just shy of 30 minutes. He is a defensive nightmare for opposing teams and is delivering more production in more minutes, though how many minutes he can average per game is worth monitoring. Edey continues the run of valuable big men in West Lafayette but, more importantly, gives Purdue's offense a number one option to allow those freshmen to get acclimated. He's gonna need help, especially in pick-and-roll defense, but he will be a monster of offense.

While Loyer and Smith will be big factors in the team's success, how far Painter's squad goes will be determined by Brandon Newman, Ethan Morton, Mason Gillis, Caleb Furst and Trey Kaufman-Renn. Newman, Morton and Gillis are in the group of experienced players who should be expected to play smart, provide some offense and play solid defense. Gillis is a glue guy and has shown improvement each season in his offensive game (going from 5.2 ppg on 46.5/35.2/81.4 shooting splits to 6.4 ppg on 49.6/41.4/85, though just 2.3 ppg on 22.2/16.7/100 splits early this season.) He has been more willing to shoot this season and early on will draw more attention as the newcomers establish themselves, but he isn't going to be counted on to be an offensive leader as a much as a contributor.

However, Morton and Newman do need to step up their offensive game. Both have had a bit of a roller coaster experience, with Morton struggling to adjust after an injury and illness his first season while Newman fell out of the rotation last year and lost his confidence. Both have shown tough defense and being smart with the ball, but the team needs points from them to diversify the attack. Newman has become a feel good story and I expect his confidence to build with a steady role. Morton has slotted in as a glue guy himself while not being needed to score, but now is his time. His shot hasn't been locked in, but he did hit two clutch free throws against Marquette. Painter has been complimentary of both and will be keys in the secondary scoring.

Furst and Kaufman-Renn are going to be counted on big time as the true back up bigs behind Edey and Gillis. Both were big time recruits but Furst had an injury and seemed to hit a wall last year while Kaufman-Renn redshirted. It's hard not to see the recruit number next to their names and have patience but these two will play plenty and expectations are still high they'll deliver on that. Furst looks a little out of sorts playing as the backup center, but did make a few huge plays against Marquette. Kaufman-Renn shows flashes of game breaking ability comparable to Carsen Edwards and Jaden Ivey but, much like the both of them, is a bit reckless early on. Both have big time talent and are expected to really be factors as the season goes on. They also allow for lineup versatility and can gradually ramp up their offense behind Edey and the other vets.

Last in the ten man rotation is redshirt freshman Brian Waddell. In the first three games this season he is struggling to find his offense, but it's worth noting that Painter was subbing him in on defense for Fletcher Loyer. He's still a skinny kid but has length and Painter's trust in clutch defensive moments, and that will get you on the court. Waddell is expected to follow the model of so many Purdue shooters but with even more size. Coming off a redshirt makes me a little concerned about his slow start, but as the 10th man he has the time to acclimate himself.

Painter's rotations were pretty set in the first two games but he tweaked them in major ways against Marquette which was a big factor in coming back and winning the game. That is important for being able to adjust successfully, but also shows a grasp already on this new roster that responded. While there's no true backup center, this team may be Painter's most versatile roster that will allow him to adjust even more in game.

I don't think Purdue is a national championship team, this year, but they are absolutely a top 25 one. More importantly, Matt Painter has constructed a solid roster that will be on it's way to try and finally deliver on that March Madness run. Despite last year's disappointment, Matt Painter has shown those down years of the Terone and Anthony Johnson years are well behind him. He has a grasp on his team and continues to do a great job building competitive rosters that, after some seasoning, should be back in position to get that Final 4 monkey of the program's back.

Marquette was the first test for this team that enters a tough stretch to really show who they are in this early season. The Boilers head to Portland for the Phil Knight Legacy Invitational and start with West Virginia. A win means a likely second round match up with Gonzaga. Florida, Duke, Xavier and Oregon State are in the top half of the bracket and the Boilers will get one of them also. Lower expectations are where Purdue thrives and they'll do it again this season.